Climate Change Commodity Prices and Your Survival

Climate change will have a tremendous influence on commodity prices and your very survival as the 21st century progresses.

Perhaps the greatest challenge that the human race has ever confronted will develop around how we adapt to rapid change in climate driven living conditions by as early as 2020 to 2030. One man who has been called a “prophet of doom” regarding climate change is James Lovelock.

James Lovelock is a renowned and highly respected scientist who in the 1970’s developed the Gaia Theory ,which thinks of the earth as a self regulating living organism.

James Ephraim Lovelock was born on 26 July 1919 in Letchworth Garden City in the United Kingdom. He graduated as a chemist from Manchester University in 1941 and in 1948 received a Ph.D. degree in medicine from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

In 1959 he received the D.Sc. degree in biophysics from London University. After graduating from Manchester he started employment with the Medical Research Council at the National Institute for Medical Research in London. James Lovelock’s full bio is at his website.

You will see after even a quick review that James Lovelock has been right about a great many things in his lifetime. He is a man who needs to be taken seriously. The following was written by James Lovelock about a system, our earth, that is in the positive feedback stage.

“Perhaps our first task is to stop thinking blindly that reducing our carbon footprint is enough. We have to understand that by abrading the skin of our planet to provide farm land we have destroyed more than 40 percent of the Earth’s natural ecosystems and these were what previously served to sustain a stable climate. Most of all, we have to understand that the Earth System is now in positive feedback and is moving ineluctably towards the stable hot state of past climates.

I cannot stress too strongly the dangers inherent in systems in positive feedback. Imagine a wooden house whose occupants have built too large a fire to warm them and the furniture near the fire was smouldering. If they did not act immediately, positive feedback would ensure that the whole house was consumed by fire in minutes.”

Lovelock believes that the earth is already in a positive feedback stage in regards to climate change. That means two big things. That change will occur very rapidly, much faster than the present general forecast, as each set of changes accelerates the development of others. And secondly, that no matter what we do it is already too late to stop climate change. By taking fast action we might be able to soften the blow somewhat, but we can not avoid what will be catastrophic results. It is already too late.

The implications of all of this is beyond the scope of this posting. However, I will follow up with additional articles on Article Discovery Politics. Here I will briefly touch on the implications as how drastic climate change will effect commodity pricing.

As climate change proceeds many areas of the earth that now produce agriculture crops that require a lot of water will fall out of production. Some areas, now generally too cold to have long growing seasons will benefit from global warming. But in general climate change will lead to a scarcity of food production from agricultural commodities. This will lead to extremely high prices, especially for grains and meats.

Industrial commodities will probably fall sharply. The reason for this is that Lovelock predicts a grim reduction in the world’s population and economic activity by the year 2100. He forecasts a population reduction from a present 6.6 billion to about 600,000 people living on earth. That’s not a misprint. Lovelock predicts that billions of people will starve to death as well as die due to a shortage of clean drinking water and diseases. Many insect and virus populations will explode as the earth warms.

What Lovelock predicts is not pleasant reading but it is important. Food will become scarce and expensive. You will have quite a few years to take advantage of the super bull trend. Survival may be difficult for you and your families but it will not be impossible.

As is usually the case if you have money you will have a much better chance of survival as you will be better able to relocate to cooler regions. Canada may well face a mass migration of over heated, starving Americans who are seeking salvation in Canada’s far north.  The peoples of Scandinavia may have to decide what to do about the many millions of Europeans who would be seeking relief from the heat in Spain, Greece, Turkey, France, Italy, Germany, and elsewhere by moving north into their territory.

To read more about Jame Lovelock and his predictions visit JamesLoveLock.Org

I will be writing a lot more about the prospect of facing up to long term drought and soon. Time may be getting very short for us all unless we take almost immediate action. Taking action in time to save your family will require difficult decisions. You will have to make a decision based upon incomplete information. You may have to move your family to a distant location  in a foreign land long before most folks have realized that they will perish unless they make drastic adjustments in the place and way that they live.

For your family to survive beyond 2150 or so you may have to be a pioneer and make adjustments far in advance of the crowd. If you own property you must sell early or else there will be no one to sell to. Then if by some miracle the drought breaks and conditions return to normal you may look to be a fool.  

However, to have the best chance of survival you must start thinking of the unthinkable.  You must accept the likelihood that the earth’s climate is changing rapidly in a way that will lead to the earth supporting far fewer people.  By being early to recognize that the changes are irreversible and by taking early action you may have a chance for survival.

Given the conditions set forth above most people will perish.  They will elect to do nothing thinking right up until their end that conditions will change for the better or that the government will somehow save them. Will you be one of them or will you be a survivor? 

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